Viewing archive of Monday, 16 June 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Jun 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 167 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jun 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (17 Jun, 18 Jun)
and likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on day three
(19 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 573 km/s at 16/1739Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 16/0654Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
16/0723Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 647 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (17 Jun, 18 Jun) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (19 Jun). Protons greater than 10
Mev have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (17 Jun) and have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (18 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jun to 19 Jun
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 70% |
| Class X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Proton | 30% | 15% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jun 148 Predicted 17 Jun-19 Jun 155/155/150 90 Day Mean 16 Jun 149
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jun 010/ NA Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jun 011/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jun-19 Jun 013/015-014/017-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jun to 19 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 50% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/02/04 | X4.3 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/02/16 | M2.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/02/15 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| January 2026 | 112.6 -11.4 |
| February 2026 | 109 -3.6 |
| Last 30 days | 126.1 +25.9 |