Viewing archive of Monday, 14 July 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Jul 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 195 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jul 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Jul, 16 Jul,
17 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 654 km/s at 13/2149Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 14/1855Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 14/1905Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 1234 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (15 Jul), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (16 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (17
Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jul to 17 Jul
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jul 128 Predicted 15 Jul-17 Jul 128/128/125 90 Day Mean 14 Jul 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jul 017/ 015 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jul 014/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul 012/015-009/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jul to 17 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 25% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/12/01 | X1.9 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/12/04 | M6.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/12/04 | Kp5 (G1) |
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| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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