Viewing archive of Friday, 15 August 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Aug 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 227 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Aug 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 13 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Aug, 17 Aug,
18 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 480 km/s at 15/0827Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 15/0840Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
15/0003Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 4262 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (16 Aug, 17 Aug) and unsettled
to active levels on day three (18 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Aug to 18 Aug
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Aug 123 Predicted 16 Aug-18 Aug 125/125/120 90 Day Mean 15 Aug 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Aug 013/ NA Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Aug 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug 006/005-006/005-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Aug to 18 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/01/18 | X1.9 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/01/21 | M3.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/01/28 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| December 2025 | 124 +32.2 |
| January 2026 | 119.3 -4.7 |
| Last 30 days | 119.6 +1.6 |