Viewing archive of Thursday, 14 August 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Aug 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 226 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Aug 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 13 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Aug, 16 Aug,
17 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 547 km/s at 14/0615Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 14/1420Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
14/0048Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3824 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 Aug) and quiet levels on
days two and three (16 Aug, 17 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Aug to 17 Aug
| Class M | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Aug 130 Predicted 15 Aug-17 Aug 130/130/125 90 Day Mean 14 Aug 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Aug 017/ 015 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Aug 010/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug 008/010-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Aug to 17 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/04/24 | X2.5 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/05/29 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/05/16 | Kp6- (G2) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 3 days |
| 2026 | 3 days (2%) |
| Last spotless day | 2026/02/24 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| April 2026 | 79.3 -6.6 |
| May 2026 | 99.1 +19.8 |
| Last 30 days | 99.1 +7.5 |
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