Viewing archive of Wednesday, 10 September 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Sep 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 253 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Sep 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Sep, 12 Sep,
13 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 584 km/s at 10/0829Z. Total IMF
reached 8 nT at 09/2106Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 09/2127Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 991 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (11 Sep) and quiet levels on
days two and three (12 Sep, 13 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Sep to 13 Sep
| Class M | 25% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Sep 119 Predicted 11 Sep-13 Sep 125/120/120 90 Day Mean 10 Sep 145
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Sep 015/ 018 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Sep 016/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Sep-13 Sep 010/012-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Sep to 13 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/11/11 | X5.1 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/11/11 | M1.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/11/12 | Kp9- (G4) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2025 | 114.6 -15.2 |
| November 2025 | 100 -14.6 |
| Last 30 days | 98.3 -35.2 |