Viewing archive of Monday, 15 September 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Sep 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 258 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Sep 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Sep, 17 Sep,
18 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at active to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 823 km/s at 15/0553Z. Total IMF
reached 19 nT at 14/2232Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-16 nT at 14/2338Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 417 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (16 Sep), quiet to
active levels on day two (17 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (18 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Sep to 18 Sep
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Sep 130 Predicted 16 Sep-18 Sep 130/130/135 90 Day Mean 15 Sep 144
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Sep 012/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Sep 032/051 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep 020/024-013/015-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Sep to 18 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 70% | 40% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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| Last X-flare | 2026/01/18 | X1.9 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/01/21 | M3.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/01/22 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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