Viewing archive of Thursday, 11 September 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Sep 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 254 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Sep 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Sep, 13 Sep,
14 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 502 km/s at 11/0327Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 11/1339Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
11/0436Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 790 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (12 Sep), quiet levels on
day two (13 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day three (14 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Sep to 14 Sep
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Sep 115 Predicted 12 Sep-14 Sep 118/120/125 90 Day Mean 11 Sep 145
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Sep 012/ 013 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Sep 011/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Sep-14 Sep 007/008-006/005-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Sep to 14 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/12/01 | X1.9 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/12/04 | M6.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/12/04 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| November 2025 | 91.8 -22.8 |
| December 2025 | 186 +94.2 |
| Last 30 days | 106.3 +12.6 |