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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Sep 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Sep, 24 Sep,
25 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 573 km/s at 22/1948Z. Total IMF reached 19
nT at 22/1110Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at
22/1054Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1547 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (23 Sep), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (24 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (25 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Sep to 25 Sep
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Sep 172 Predicted 23 Sep-25 Sep 172/168/165 90 Day Mean 22 Sep 146
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Sep 011/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep 014/015-009/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep to 25 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 30% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/01/18 | X1.9 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/01/21 | M3.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/01/21 | Kp7+ (G3) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| December 2025 | 124 +32.2 |
| January 2026 | 110 -14 |
| Last 30 days | 115.1 +6.1 |