Viewing archive of Tuesday, 23 September 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Sep 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 266 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Sep 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 12 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Sep, 25 Sep,
26 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 633 km/s at 22/1052Z. Total IMF
reached 12 nT at 22/2125Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 22/2337Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 690 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (24 Sep) and quiet levels
on days two and three (25 Sep, 26 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Sep to 26 Sep
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Sep 171 Predicted 24 Sep-26 Sep 168/165/160 90 Day Mean 23 Sep 147
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Sep 012/ NA Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Sep 012/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Sep-26 Sep 009/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Sep to 26 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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Do the high-resolution sunspot counts point to more complex sunspots? 57Current Farside Activity 371Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 154Feb 8-9 CMEs 21AR4366 999
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| Last M-flare | 2026/02/08 | M2.8 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/02/05 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
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| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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