Viewing archive of Thursday, 25 September 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Sep 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 268 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Sep 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Sep, 27 Sep,
28 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 548 km/s at 25/0347Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 25/1223Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
25/0829Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 679 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (26 Sep), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (27 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day three (28 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Sep to 28 Sep
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Sep 170 Predicted 26 Sep-28 Sep 170/165/165 90 Day Mean 25 Sep 148
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Sep 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Sep 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Sep-28 Sep 006/005-008/008-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Sep to 28 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 25% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/06/03 | X1.0 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/06/21 | M6.9 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/06/11 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 3 days |
| 2026 | 3 days (2%) |
| Last spotless day | 2026/02/24 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| May 2026 | 101.4 +22.1 |
| June 2026 | 97.9 -3.5 |
| Last 30 days | 107 +10.2 |
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