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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Oct 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 274 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Oct 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(02 Oct, 03 Oct, 04 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at active to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 880 km/s at 01/1700Z. Total IMF
reached 11 nT at 30/2146Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 01/0159Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 2756 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on days one and two (02 Oct, 03 Oct)
and quiet to active levels on day three (04 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Oct to 04 Oct
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Oct 184 Predicted 02 Oct-04 Oct 185/185/185 90 Day Mean 01 Oct 151
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Sep 043/075 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Oct 032/043 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Oct-04 Oct 021/028-015/018-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Oct to 04 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 35% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 50% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/12/01 | X1.9 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/12/04 | M6.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/12/04 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| November 2025 | 91.8 -22.8 |
| December 2025 | 186 +94.2 |
| Last 30 days | 106.3 +12.6 |