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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Nov 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Nov 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (15 Nov, 16 Nov)
and likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day three (17 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 746 km/s at 13/2147Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
14/1405Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
14/1704Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 16 pfu at 14/0950Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 534 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (15 Nov), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (16 Nov) and unsettled to minor storm levels on
day three (17 Nov). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day
one (15 Nov), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (16 Nov)
and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (17 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Nov to 17 Nov
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 60% |
| Class X | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Proton | 40% | 25% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Nov 145 Predicted 15 Nov-17 Nov 145/135/130 90 Day Mean 14 Nov 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Nov 043/059 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Nov 009/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov 008/008-011/015-017/022
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Nov to 17 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 35% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 55% | 65% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/12/08 | X1.1 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/12/08 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/12/04 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| November 2025 | 91.8 -22.8 |
| December 2025 | 162.7 +70.9 |
| Last 30 days | 108 +13.3 |