Viewing archive of Thursday, 11 December 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Dec 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 345 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Dec 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (12 Dec) and likely
to be moderate on days two and three (13 Dec, 14 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 500 km/s at 10/2232Z. Total IMF
reached 21 nT at 11/0716Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-16 nT at 11/0059Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 539 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (12 Dec) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (13 Dec, 14 Dec). Protons greater
than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (12
Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Dec to 14 Dec
| Class M | 65% | 60% | 55% |
| Class X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Dec 146 Predicted 12 Dec-14 Dec 170/165/165 90 Day Mean 11 Dec 151
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Dec 016/021 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Dec 018/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Dec-14 Dec 017/024-013/016-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Dec to 14 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 50% | 60% |
All times in UTC
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| Last X-flare | 2026/06/03 | X1.0 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/06/21 | M6.8 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/06/11 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
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| 2026 | 3 days (2%) |
| Last spotless day | 2026/02/24 |
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| June 2026 | 100.6 -0.8 |
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