Viewing archive of Wednesday, 10 December 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Dec 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 344 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Dec 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (11 Dec) and likely
to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day two (12
Dec) and likely to be moderate on day three (13 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 474 km/s at 10/2053Z. Total IMF reached 17
nT at 10/2018Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -15 nT at
10/2046Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2183 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (11 Dec, 12 Dec)
and quiet to active levels on day three (13 Dec). Protons greater than
10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (11 Dec)
and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (12 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Dec to 13 Dec
| Class M | 75% | 65% | 65% |
| Class X | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Dec 168 Predicted 11 Dec-13 Dec 175/170/165 90 Day Mean 10 Dec 150
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Dec 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Dec 011/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Dec-13 Dec 007/009-011/014-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Dec to 13 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 25% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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