Viewing archive of Tuesday, 16 December 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Dec 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 350 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Dec 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (17
Dec, 18 Dec, 19 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 737 km/s at 16/1353Z. Total IMF reached 13
nT at 16/0136Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
15/2350Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1024 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (17 Dec, 18 Dec) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (19 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Dec to 19 Dec
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Dec 117 Predicted 17 Dec-19 Dec 118/118/115 90 Day Mean 16 Dec 150
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Dec 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Dec 010/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Dec-19 Dec 013/015-014/015-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Dec to 19 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 50% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/12/08 | X1.1 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/12/21 | M1.3 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/12/22 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| November 2025 | 91.8 -22.8 |
| December 2025 | 115.2 +23.4 |
| Last 30 days | 109.1 +22.6 |