Viewing archive of Monday, 12 January 2026
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2026 Jan 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 12 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jan 2026IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Jan, 14 Jan,
15 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 667 km/s at 12/1818Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 11/2136Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
11/2144Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2375 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (13 Jan, 14 Jan) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (15 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jan to 15 Jan
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Jan 113 Predicted 13 Jan-15 Jan 120/120/120 90 Day Mean 12 Jan 147
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jan 020/031 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jan 014/017 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jan-15 Jan 013/018-011/012-008/009
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jan to 15 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 50% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/06/03 | X1.0 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/06/21 | M6.8 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/06/11 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 3 days |
| 2026 | 3 days (2%) |
| Last spotless day | 2026/02/24 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| May 2026 | 101.4 +22.1 |
| June 2026 | 100.6 -0.8 |
| Last 30 days | 109.2 +10.9 |
