Viewing archive of Thursday, 8 January 2026
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2026 Jan 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 8 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jan 2026IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (09 Jan, 10 Jan, 11 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 442 km/s at 08/1746Z. Total IMF reached 14
nT at 08/1624Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at
08/0600Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 508 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (09 Jan), quiet to
active levels on day two (10 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (11 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (09 Jan, 10 Jan, 11 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Jan to 11 Jan
| Class M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jan 140 Predicted 09 Jan-11 Jan 130/130/132 90 Day Mean 08 Jan 148
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jan 003/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jan 012/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jan-11 Jan 015/024-013/015-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jan to 11 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 50% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/01/18 | X1.9 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/01/17 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/01/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| December 2025 | 124 +32.2 |
| January 2026 | 98.3 -25.7 |
| Last 30 days | 104.9 -1.9 |