Viewing archive of Sunday, 11 January 2026
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2026 Jan 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 11 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2026IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Jan,
13 Jan, 14 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 586 km/s at 11/1911Z. Total IMF
reached 16 nT at 11/0046Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-10 nT at 11/1544Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 501 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (12 Jan), unsettled
to active levels on day two (13 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day
three (14 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jan to 14 Jan
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jan 111 Predicted 12 Jan-14 Jan 110/110/112 90 Day Mean 11 Jan 147
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan 015/032 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jan 025/035 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan 021/028-014/018-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan to 14 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 45% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 85% | 60% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/06/03 | X1.0 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/06/21 | M6.8 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/06/11 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 3 days |
| 2026 | 3 days (2%) |
| Last spotless day | 2026/02/24 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| May 2026 | 101.4 +22.1 |
| June 2026 | 100.6 -0.8 |
| Last 30 days | 109.2 +10.9 |
