Viewing archive of Sunday, 8 February 2026
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2026 Feb 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 39 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2026IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 Feb, 10
Feb, 11 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 565 km/s at 08/1537Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 08/2056Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
07/2143Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1893 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (09 Feb), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (10 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (11
Feb). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (09 Feb, 10 Feb, 11 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Feb to 11 Feb
| Class M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Feb 167 Predicted 09 Feb-11 Feb 165/160/155 90 Day Mean 08 Feb 151
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Feb 011/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Feb 009/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb 012/015-009/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb to 11 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 25% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/07/04 | X1.3 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/07/12 | M1.19 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/07/04 | Kp7+ (G3) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 3 days |
| 2026 | 3 days (2%) |
| Last spotless day | 2026/02/24 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| June 2026 | 94.4 -7.1 |
| July 2026 | 74.8 -19.6 |
| Last 30 days | 87 -20.2 |
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