Viewing archive of Monday, 9 February 2026
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2026 Feb 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 40 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Feb 2026IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Feb, 11
Feb, 12 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 486 km/s at 09/1057Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 09/0852Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
08/2216Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1764 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (10 Feb) and quiet levels
on days two and three (11 Feb, 12 Feb). Protons have a chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (10 Feb, 11 Feb, 12 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Feb to 12 Feb
| Class M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Feb 144 Predicted 10 Feb-12 Feb 150/145/145 90 Day Mean 09 Feb 151
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Feb 005/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Feb 007/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb 009/003-006/002-006/002
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb to 12 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/03/30 | X1.5 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/04/09 | M1.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/04/19 | Kp6- (G2) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 3 days |
| 2026 | 3 days (3%) |
| Last spotless day | 2026/02/24 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| March 2026 | 85.9 +7.7 |
| April 2026 | 81 -4.9 |
| Last 30 days | 94 +31.1 |
