Viewing archive of Saturday, 11 October 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Oct 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (12
Oct, 13 Oct, 14 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 470 km/s at 11/0835Z. Total IMF
reached 17 nT at 11/1822Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 11/2037Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 2784 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (12 Oct), quiet to
minor storm levels on day two (13 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on
day three (14 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Oct to 14 Oct
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Oct 131 Predicted 12 Oct-14 Oct 130/135/140 90 Day Mean 11 Oct 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct 009/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Oct 016/022 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct 018/025-015/018-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct to 14 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 45% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 60% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/03/30 | X1.5 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/03/28 | M1.3 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/03/25 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 3 days |
| 2026 | 3 days (3%) |
| Last spotless day | 2026/02/24 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| February 2026 | 78.2 -34.3 |
| Last 30 days | 90 +16.9 |
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